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No-Deal Brexit: Here are the African countries that stand to gain and lose

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  • No-Brexit deal may impact African markets positively and negatively
  • The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in a report, analysed the the consequences posed by Brexit on trading countries.
  • The report states that for the UK to minimise negative implications of Brexit on low-income countries exports, it needs to make sure that preferential access is maintained.

As the United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union (EU), international markets, mostlyAfricans, may experience difficulties with one of the world’s trading partners..

In a report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), titled: “Brexit. Implications for Developing Countries”, the UN agency explained that the consequences posed by Brexit are that of the UK’s changing tariff structure and how it will impact trading countries.

The report states that for the UK to minimise negative implications of Brexit on low-income countries exports, it needs to make sure that preferential access is maintained.

A no-deal Brexit would significantly alter market access conditions in the United Kingdom for both developing and developed countries.”

The two-case scenario identified:

Brexit deal scenario: If the UK and the EU agreed on an exit plan, the UK would maintain its current trade agreements with international partners for the next two years before implementing trade deals of its own.

No-Brexit scenario: If the UK does not reach an agreement with the EU, existing trade agreements between the UK and other countries will no longer apply. This means that other, non-EU countries that export goods to the UK will be subject to highly tariffs including the Most Favoured Nations (MFN), dramatically tipping the balance of exports around the world.

While the UK and EU have made preparations for a NO- Brexit deal. If this happened in the long run, some African countries will lose exports while some will gain exports.

According to the UNCTAD report, here’s what these African countries stand to gain or lose if it is a No-Brexit deal scenario:

Gainers:

  • South Africa $3 billion
  • Botswana $199 million
  • Namibia $85 million

Losers:

  • Seychelles $106 million
  • Kenya $21 million
  • Ethiopia $21 million
  • Morocco $97 million
  • Ghana $91 million
  • Tunisia $49 million
  • Cote D’Ivoire $30 million
  • Zimbabwe $5 million
  • Nigeria $2 million

The United Kingdom (UK) voted in June 2016 to leave the European Union (EU). The leader of EU leaders recently granted Britain a Brexit delay until October 30, 2019, to fine-tune arrangement with Parliament on leaving the bloc without a deal.

Last year, Nigeria said it is studying the developments about Brexit. President Muhammadu Buhari stated this during British Prime Minister, Theresa May’s first visit to the continent in August 2018.